The 2023 Africa Cup of Nations is in full swing, witnessing teams like Cape Verde and Senegal confidently progressing to the knockout stage, while others, including the Black Stars of Ghana, Egypt, and Cameroun, are desperately clinging to hope. For those landing in third place in their groups after the final round of group stage matches, a chance still exists to secure a coveted spot in the last 16. But how exactly does this process unfold?

Third-Place Teams: The Battle for Four Tickets With 24 teams competing in AFCON, only 16 will advance to the knockout stage. While the top two teams from each group automatically qualify, an additional four slots are reserved for the best third-place finishers in the group stage.

Determining the Lucky Four: The allocation of these precious spots revolves around points, goals, and a sprinkle of luck. Here’s the breakdown:

1. Points Matter Most: The team with the highest points from their three group matches earns the first opportunity to advance to the last 16. If two or more teams share the same points, the situation becomes more intricate.
2. Head-to-Head Battle: In the case of a tie in points between two teams, their head-to-head match result becomes crucial. The team that emerged victorious in that encounter secures bragging rights and a potential ticket to the next round.
3. Goal Difference Decides: If the head-to-head match ended in a draw, the overall goal difference in all group matches becomes the deciding factor. The team that conceded fewer goals while scoring more takes a step closer to qualification.
4. Most Goals Scored Takes the Cake: If teams are still tied, they are ranked based on the total number of goals scored throughout the group stage. More goals equate to a higher ranking in this situation.
5. Lady Luck Steps In: Should all previous criteria fail to break the tie, a drawing of lots by the organizing committee becomes the ultimate decider, determining the fortunate team to secure the last spot.

For third-place teams, every point, every goal, and every clean sheet weigh heavily in determining their fate. The performance across all three group matches will be pivotal, and a bit of luck may just tip the scales.

Reflecting on the 2022 AFCON (see table below), it’s evident that three points were sufficient for qualification, with Tunisia and Comoros advancing at the expense of Ghana. Cape Verde and Malawi, both with four points, joined them in the round of 16.

As the tournament unfolds, keep a keen eye on the remaining third-place finishers, as exciting battles are underway for those last four coveted slots in the AFCON knockout stage!