Nigeria’s road to the 2026 FIFA World Cup has become even more complicated after Benin Republic’s emphatic 4-0 win over Lesotho in Abidjan on Tuesday.

The result pushed the Cheetahs into second place in Group C, overtaking the Super Eagles, who had earlier been held to a 1-1 draw by South Africa’s Bafana Bafana in Bloemfontein. Nigeria now sits in third with 11 points from eight matches, level with Rwanda but ahead only on goal difference.

The qualification mathematics is tricky: to secure a playoff spot, the Super Eagles must be among the four best second-placed teams across the nine groups. That means Eric Chelle’s men must win their remaining two matches—away to Lesotho and at home to Benin Republic—while hoping the Cheetahs falter in their own fixtures.

If Benin Republic secures even one more victory, they would reach 17 points, a tally Nigeria cannot surpass unless South Africa is docked three points by FIFA for fielding ineligible midfielder Teboho Mokoena in a match against Lesotho. That disciplinary decision, still pending, could alter the group standings significantly.

Meanwhile, Rwanda has also entered the picture, following a 1-0 win over Zimbabwe in Harare, which drew them level with Nigeria.

Group leaders South Africa remain in control with 17 points and need just one more win from their last two matches to guarantee their place in North America.

For Nigeria, the equation is clear: win every remaining game and pray for slips from Benin and South Africa. The clash against Benin Republic in Uyo could ultimately decide whether the Super Eagles soar into the playoffs—or crash out of the race.